Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on January 7, 2007 at 05:15 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2005 (last update March 3, 2006)]
[Archived reports (last update December 18, 2006)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on January 6. Solar wind speed ranged between 445 and 560 km/s (all day average 491 km/s - decreasing 88 km/s compared to the previous day).

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 87.3. The planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.4). Three hour interval K indices: 11001211 (planetary), 11111211 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A3 level.

At midnight there were 4 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.

Region 10933 was quiet and stable.
Region 10934 decayed slowly and could soon become spotless.
Region 10935 was quiet. The single penumbra took on a more asymmetrical shape during the day.
New region 10936 emerged on January 5 in the northeast quadrant and was numbered the next day by NOAA/SEC. The region decayed slowly on January 6 and could soon become spotless.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

January 4-6: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

No obvious coronal hole are currently near or approaching Earth facing positions.

Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 00:00 UTC on January 7. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on January 7-12.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)



1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Monitoring has been temporarily suspended (as of January 1, 2007).

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered SEC
spot
count
STAR
spot
count
Location at midnight Area Classification Comment
10933 2006.12.30 2 1 S04W14 0170 CAO classification was HAX at midnight, location S05W17
10934 2006.12.31 2 1 N03W14 0010 HRX classification was AXX at midnight
10935 2007.01.03 1 1 S06E10 0220 HAX  
10936 2007.01.06 2 1 N10E41 0020 HRX formerly region S688
classification was AXX at midnight, area 0010
Total spot count: 7 4  
SSN: 47 44  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar
flux at Earth
International sunspot number Smoothed sunspot number
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)
2005.11 86.3 18.0 24.9 (-0.6)
2005.12 90.7 41.1 23.0 (-1.9)
2006.01 83.4 15.3 20.8 (-2.2)
2006.02 76.5 4.9 18.6 (-2.2)
2006.03 75.4 10.6 17.3 (-1.3)
2006.04 89.0 30.2 17.1 (-0.2)
2006.05 80.9 22.2 17.3 (+0.2)
2006.06 76.5 13.9 16.3 (-1.0)
2006.07 75.7 12.2 (15.0 predicted, -1.3)
2006.08 79.0 12.9 (14.9 predicted, -0.1)
2006.09 77.8 14.5 (14.7 predicted, -0.2)
2006.10 74.3 10.4 (13.5 predicted, -1.2)
2006.11 86.3 21.5 (12.1 predicted, -1.4)
2006.12 84.5 13.6 (11.7 predicted, -0.4)
2007.01 87.4 (1) 7.2 (2) (11.9 predicted, +0.2)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


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