Last major update issued on November 15, 2011 at 05:20 UTC.
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Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation
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June 27, 2011]
The geomagnetic field was inactive on November 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 344 and 418 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 161.1 (increasing 14.3 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 0 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 0.0). Three hour interval K indices: 00000000 (planetary), 00001100 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 13 spotted regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11339 [N18W87] rotated partly out of view at the northwest limb.
Region 11340 [S08W56] was quiet and stable.
Region 11341 [N10W36] was quiet and decayed slightly.
Region 11342 [N16W47] was quiet and stable.
Region 11343 [N29W25] was quiet and stable.
Region 11345 [S24W72] was quit and stable.
Region 11346 [S19E42] developed significantly with positive polarity flux
emerging just southeast of the largest penumbra. This new penumbra has a weak
magnetic delta structure.
Region 11347 [N08E30] developed early in the day, then began to decay.
Flares: C2.1 at 11:23, C4.2 at 23:58 UTC.
New region 11348 [N20W71] emerged quickly in the northwest quadrant on
November 13 and developed further on Nov.14 when SWPC assigned it a number.
There's polarity intermixing and the region could soon become capable of
producing a minor M class flare.
Flares: C1.2 at 06:12, C5.2 at 09:30 UTC.
New region 11349 [N17W03] emerged in the northern hemisphere near the
central meridian on Nov.14.
New region 11350 [N26E69] emerged at the northeast limb.
Spotted regions not reported by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1321] emerged in the northeast quadrant on November 12. Location at
midnight: N12E05
[S1322] emerged in the northeast quadrant on November 13. Location at
midnight: N11E47
November 12-14: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are near Earth facing positions.
The above coronal hole map is based on a new method where coronal holes are detected automatically. The method may need some fine tuning, however, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using the new method, the extent and intensity of both holes are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on November 15-17.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for higher resolution image)
Compare to the
previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | |||||
| 11339 | 2011.11.01 | 3 | 2 | N19W89 | 0240 | DSO | HSX |
 |
 |
|
| 11344 | 2011.11.03 2011.11.07 |
3 | S17W86 | 0060 | CSO | spotless, rotated out of view SWPC is reusing 11344 instead of assigning a new number to to S1317 |
||||
| 11340 | 2011.11.04 2011.11.05 |
1 | 1 | S08W57 | 0070 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
|
| 11341 | 2011.11.05 | 7 | 15 | N09W35 | 0070 | DSO | DSO |
 |
 |
area: 0150 |
| 11342 | 2011.11.05 | 1 | 4 | N17W48 | 0110 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0210 |
| 11343 | 2011.11.05 2011.11.06 |
1 | 5 | N28W26 | 0070 | HSX | CAO |
 |
 |
location: N29W25 area: 0140 |
| S1315 | 2011.11.08 | S20W37 | plage | |||||||
| 11345 | 2011.11.09 | 1 | 1 | S24W71 | 0010 | HSX | AXX |
 |
 |
|
| S1318 | 2011.11.10 | N15W15 | plage | |||||||
| 11346 | 2011.11.11 2011.11.12 |
3 | 11 | S18E40 | 0110 | CSO | DSO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S19E42 area: 0300 |
| 11347 | 2011.11.12 2011.11.13 |
3 | 7 | N08E28 | 0030 | CRO | CRO |
 |
 |
|
| S1321 | 2011.11.12 | 2 | N12E05 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S1322 | 2011.11.13 | 1 | N11E47 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S1323 | 2011.11.13 | N18E26 |
 |
plage | ||||||
| 11348 | 2011.11.13 2011.11.14 |
12 | 13 | N20W70 | 0060 | DSO | DSI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0250 |
| 11349 | 2011.11.14 | 3 | 6 | N15W02 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
||
| 11350 | 2011.11.14 | 3 | 4 | N26E67 | 0040 | DSO | DSO |
 |
area: 0200 | |
| 11351 | 2011.11.14 | 5 | S23E51 | 0020 | BXO | SWPC has decided that the trailing spots of region 11346 is an independent region | ||||
| Total spot count: | 46 | 72 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 176 | 202 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Classification adjusted SN: | 99 | 118 | (Sum of total spot count + classification adjustment for each AR. Classification adjustment: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 106 | 91 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC. k = 0.45 (changed from 0.33 on Nov.1) for STAR SDO | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008.07 | 65.7 (SF minimum) | 0.5 | 2.8 (-0.4) | |
| 2008.12 | 69.2 | 0.8 | 1.7 (-) sunspot minimum |
3.25 |
| 2010.07 | 79.8 | 16.1 | 16.7 (+0.3) | 6.31 / 5.15 |
| 2010.08 | 79.2 | 19.6 | 17.4 (+0.7) | 8.49 / 7.77 |
| 2010.09 | 81.1 | 25.2 | 19.6 (+2.2) | 5.33 / 5.45 |
| 2010.10 | 81.6 | 23.5 | 23.2 (+3.6) | 6.07 / 6.27 |
| 2010.11 | 82.5 | 21.5 | 26.5 (+3.3) | 4.80 / 5.50 |
| 2010.12 | 84.2 | 14.4 | 28.8 (+2.3) | 3.41 / 4.35 |
| 2011.01 | 83.6 | 19.1 | 31.0 (+2.2) | 4.32 / 5.51 |
| 2011.02 | 94.6 | 29.4 | 33.4 (+2.4) | 5.41 / 6.44 |
| 2011.03 | 115.0 | 56.2 | 36.9 (+3.5) | 7.79 / 8.18 |
| 2011.04 | 112.6 | 54.4 | 41.8 (+4.9) | 9.71 / 8.83 |
| 2011.05 | 95.8 | 41.6 | (47.4 predicted, +5.6) | 9.18 / 8.94 |
| 2011.06 | 95.8 | 37.0 | (52.5 predicted, +5.1) | 8.96 / 8.06 |
| 2011.07 | 94.2 | 43.9 | (58.2 predicted, +5.7) | 9.14 / 8.16 |
| 2011.08 | 101.7 | 50.6 | (63.7 predicted, +5.5) | 8.16 / 7.26 |
| 2011.09 | 133.8 | 78.0 | (67.0 predicted, +3.3) | 12.80 / 12.27 |
| 2011.10 | 137.3 | 88.0 | (70.5 predicted, +3.5) | 7.52 |
| 2011.11 | 168.3 (1) | 67.3 (2A) / 144.1 (2B) | (74.9 predicted, +4.4) | (4.68) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month
average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the official NGDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
