Last major update issued on August 29, 2012 at 05:05 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet on August 28. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 418 and 558 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 111.2 (decreasing 30.6 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.0). Three hour interval K indices: 21111011 (planetary), 11022211 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 10 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11548 [N15W60] reemerged with a single spot.
Region 11553 [S22W05] was quiet and stable.
Region 11554 [N16W42] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11555 [N08E30] lost penumbral area and gained some spots.
Region 11557 [N17E27] decayed and could soon become spotless.
Region 11558 [N13E57] was moved southwards by SWPC while the original spots were renumbered AR 11559.
New region 11559 [N18E65] was originally AR 11558. These two regions could be one region and may be merged soon.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
S1884 [N12E43] was quiet and stable gaining a small spot.
New region S1885 [N25E09] emerged with a few tiny spots in an old plage area.
New region S1886 [N08E02] emerged with a tiny spot.
August 26-28: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A small trans equatorial coronal hole (CH531) has developed over the last few days and was in an Earth facing position on August 27.
The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on August 29 and quiet to unsettled on August 30-31 due to weak effects from CH531.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image [NEW]
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|11558||2012.08.27||1||2||1||N13E65||0010||AXX||AXX||the AR formerly known as 11558 is now AR 11559|
|1||2||1||N18E65||0010||AXX||see AR 11558|
|Total spot count:||23||68||27|
|Sunspot number:||73||168||97||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||38||81||40||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||44||59||53||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2012.02||106.5||32.9||(67.4 projected, +1.9)||8.81|
|2012.03||114.7||64.3||(68.1 projected, +0.7)||16.08|
|2012.04||113.0||55.2||(67.5 projected, -0.6)||10.10|
|2012.05||121.5||69.0||(65.8 projected, -1.7)||7.06|
|2012.06||119.6||64.5||(65.0 projected, -0.8)||10.08|
|2012.07||133.9||66.5||(66.0 projected, +1.0)||13.90|
|2012.08||114.3 (1)||74.5 (2A) / 82.4 (2B)||(68.6 projected, +2.6)||(8.00)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.