Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on March 25, 2012 at 06:05 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update March 2, 2012)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update March 2, 2012)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update March 2, 2012)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update March 1, 2012)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated March 25, 2012]
Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation 2118 [December 2011 - January 2012] - 2119 [January-February 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on March 24. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 325 and 460 km/s, likely under the influence of CH408.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 102.7 (decreasing 4.3 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 16 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 15.6). Three hour interval K indices: 23532222 (planetary), 15522311 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 9 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11438 [S14E17] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11440 [S24W66] developed slowly and was quiet.
Region 11443 [N16E39] was quiet and stable.
Region 11444 [N21E26] displayed no significant changes and remains capable of producing C flares as a reversed polarities region.
Region 11445 [S23E66] was mostly unchanged. C and minor M class flares are possible. Flare: long duration C7.2 event peaking at 09:01 UTC

Spotted regions not reported by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1544] emerged in the northeast quadrant on March 22. Location at midnight: N24W13
[S1547] emerged in the northeast quadrant on March 23. Location at midnight: N29E29
[S1548] emerged in the northeast quadrant on March 23. Location at midnight: N13E31
[S1550] emerged in the southeast quadrant on March 24. Location at midnight: S18E49

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

March 22-24: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A very elongated recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH509) will rotate into an Earth facing position on March 23-26.

Coronal hole map

The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on March 25. A high speed stream from CH509 could cause quiet to active conditions on March 26-29.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
11436 2012.03.15
2012.03.16
      S14W48           plage
S1533 2012.03.18       N23W29           plage
S1534 2012.03.18       N13W39           plage
11438 2012.03.19
2012.03.20
1 3 1 S14E15 0030 HAX CSO location: S14E17
11440 2012.03.19
2012.03.21
2 5 2 S24W64 0010 HRX BXO  
11441 2012.03.19
2012.03.22
      S27W83         plage
S1539 2012.03.20       N05W27           plage
11442 2012.03.21
2012.03.22
      N13E22         plage
11443 2012.03.21
2012.03.22
1 2 1 N18E37 0010 AXX AXX location: N16E39
11444 2012.03.22
2012.03.23
7 18 9 N20E25 0050 CAO CRI reversed polarities
S1544 2012.03.22   8 3 N24W13 0010   BXO  
11445 2012.03.23 4 12 7 S24E62 0100 EAO EAO location: S23E66

area: 0300

S1545 2012.03.23       S28W13         plage
S1546 2012.03.23       N17W77         plage
S1547 2012.03.23   1   N29E29 0000   AXX  
S1548 2012.03.23   3 1 N13E31 0000   BXO  
S1549 2012.03.23       S10W50         plage
S1550 2012.03.24   1   S18E49 0000   AXX    
Total spot count: 15 53 24  
Sunspot number: 65 143 94  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted penumbral SN: 33 66 37  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 39 50 52 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 (changed from 0.45 on March 1, 2011) for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2008.07 65.7 (SF minimum) 0.5 2.8 (-0.4)  
2008.12 69.2 0.8 1.7 (-)
sunspot minimum
 
2010.12 84.2 14.4 28.8 (+2.3) 4.35
2011.01 83.6 19.1 31.0 (+2.2) 5.51
2011.02 94.6 29.4 33.4 (+2.4)  6.44
2011.03 115.0 56.2 36.9 (+3.5) 8.18
2011.04 112.6 54.4 41.8 (+4.9) 8.83
2011.05 95.8 41.6 47.6 (+5.8) 8.94
2011.06 95.8 37.0 53.2 (+5.6) 8.06
2011.07 94.2 43.9 57.2 (+4.0) 8.16
2011.08 101.7 50.6 59.0 (+1.8) 7.26
2011.09 133.8 78.0 (59.2 projected, +0.2) 12.27
2011.10 137.3 88.0 (59.4 projected, +0.2) 8.28
2011.11 153.5 96.7 (60.8 projected, +1.4) 5.55
2011.12 141.3 73.0 (63.6 projected, +2.8) 3.78
2012.01 132.5 58.3 (67.1 projected, +3.5) 7.15
2012.02 106.5 33.1 (71.0 projected, +3.9) 8.81
2012.03 116.9 (1) 59.0 (2A) / 76.3 (2B) (73.2 projected, +2.2) (23.07)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the quicklook Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.