Last major update issued on May 14, 2012 at 04:25 UTC.
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[POES auroral activity level since October
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Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation 2118 [December 2011 - January 2012] - 2119 [January-February 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on May 13. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 443 and 540 km/s, likely under the influence of a high speed stream from CH516 most of the day.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 130.5 (increasing 22.6 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 14 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 13.5). Three hour interval K indices: 34322233 (planetary), 33322233 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 12 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11476 [N09W34] decayed further with the largest penumbra
becoming symmetric. An M class flare is still a possibility.
Flares: C4.4 at 04:08, C7.0/1F at 08:14 UTC
Region 11477 [S23E08] was quiet and stable.
Region 11478 [S24E17] was quiet and stable.
Region 11479 [N13E41] was quiet and stable.
New region 11481 [S10E61] rotated into view at the southeast limb on May 12 and got an SWPC number the next day.
New region 11482 [N14E49] rotated into view at the southeast limb on May 11 and was recognized as an active region by SWPC two days later.
New region 11483 [S26E52] emerged near the southeast limb early on May 12 and was assigned a number by SWPC the next day.
New region 11484 [N12E79] rotated into view at the northeast limb.
Spotted active regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
S1647 [N13E16] lost the leader spot and gained a spot in the trailing polarity area.
New region S1651 [N31E40] emerged with a single, tiny spot.
New region S1652 [S03W05] emerged near center disk with a tiny spot.
New region S1653 [N28E03] emerged with a tiny spot.
May 11-12: A filament eruption began after 18h UTC on May 11 and involved a large area
around the center of the disk, including the southern part of AR 11476, AR 11480
and extending towards the east. A CME was observed in STEREO-B at 23:54 UTC and
in STEREO-A a couple of hours later when images resumed. LASCO displays a slow
and small halo CME. The CME is likely Earth
May 13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO or STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH516) was Earth facing on May 9-10.
The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on May 14 due to a high speed stream from CH516. Quiet to unsettled is likely on May 14. The CME observed late on May 11 / early on May 12 could reach Earth on May 15 and cause quiet to active conditions.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||58||116||61|
|Sunspot number:||138||236||161||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted penumbral SN:||98||159||104||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||83||83||89||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 (changed from 0.45 on March 1, 2011) for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2008.07||65.7 (SF minimum)||0.5||2.8 (-0.4)|
|2011.11||153.5||96.7||(61.2 projected, +1.3)||5.55|
|2011.12||141.3||73.0||(63.9 projected, +2.7)||3.78|
|2012.01||132.5||58.3||(67.4 projected, +3.5)||7.15|
|2012.02||106.5||33.1||(71.4 projected, +4.0)||8.81|
|2012.03||114.7||64.2||(73.5 projected, +2.1)||16.08|
|2012.04||113.0||55.2||(74.5 projected, +1.0)||10.10|
|2012.05||122.0 (1)||41.1 (2A) / 98.0 (2B)||(75.8 projected, +1.3)||(10.79)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.