Last major update issued on November 30, 2013 at 06:20 UTC.
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[Presentation
3rd
SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 29. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 270 and 408 km/s under the influence of a weak disturbance.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 128.5 (decreasing 13.1 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 126.7. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.1). Three hour interval K indices: 12221231 (planetary), 12232321 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B3 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 9 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 184) and 7 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 108) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11903 [S11W82] was quiet and stable.
Region 11906 [S17W09] was quiet and stable.
Region 11907 [S09W23] decayed further and was mostly quiet.
Region 11908 [S26E17] was quiet and stable.
Region 11909 [S18E46] was quiet and stable.
Region 11910 [N00W25] decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
New region S2867 [S12E29] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S2868 [S18E24] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S2869 [S13W41] emerged with a penumbra spot.
November 28-29: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO
and
STEREO imagery.
November 27: Several CMEs were observed during the day. The largest had
its origin in a filament eruption that began late on November 26 in the
southwest quadrant (and across the limb to the backside). While Earth is not in
the path of the core CME, there's a slight chance of a glancing blow on November
30.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A coronal hole (CH595) in the northern hemisphere could rotate into an Earth facing position on November 30. A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH596) could rotate to a potentially geoeffective position on December 3-4.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on November 30 - December 2 with a slight chance of unsettled and active intervals on November 30 due to a CME.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11903 | 2013.11.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | S11W83 | 0080 | HSX | HRX |
 |
 |
|
| 11907 | 2013.11.22 2013.11.26 |
21 | 28 | 10 | S09W22 | 0130 | EAC | DAI |
 |
 |
|
| 11905 | 2013.11.22 2013.11.23 |
N18W07 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| 11906 | 2013.11.23 2013.11.25 |
7 | 2 | S17W14 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S17W09 | ||
| 11908 | 2013.11.26 2013.11.27 |
8 | 15 | 6 | S26E15 | 0230 | DAO | DSO |
 |
 |
area: 0350 |
| 11909 | 2013.11.26 2013.11.27 |
14 | 30 | 16 | S18E45 | 0320 | DKC | DAC |
 |
 |
area: 0550 |
| 11910 | 2013.11.27 2013.11.28 |
1 | 2 | 2 | N01W27 | 0010 | AXX | HRX |
 |
 |
|
| S2862 | 2013.11.27 | S05W32 | plage | ||||||||
| S2863 | 2013.11.27 | N22E24 | plage | ||||||||
| S2864 | 2013.11.27 | S08W16 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2865 | 2013.11.27 | S66E05 | plage | ||||||||
| S2866 | 2013.11.28 | S30E43 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2867 | 2013.11.29 | 5 | 1 | S12E29 | 0014 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S2868 | 2013.11.29 | 4 | S18E24 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S2869 | 2013.11.29 | 1 | S13W41 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 45 | 94 | 38 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 95 | 184 | 108 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 70 | 115 | 59 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 57 | 64 | 59 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011.11 | 153.5 (cycle peak) | 96.7 (cycle peak) | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) possibe cycle 24 max |
8.81 |
| 2012.07 | 133.9 | 66.5 | 57.8 (-1.1) | 13.90 |
| 2012.08 | 115.4 | 63.0 | 58.2 (+0.4) | 7.96 |
| 2012.09 | 122.9 | 61.4 | 58.1 (-0.1) | 8.07 |
| 2012.10 | 123.3 | 53.3 | 58.6 (+0.5) | 9.97 |
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 61.8 | 59.7 (+1.1) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 40.8 | 59.6 (-0.1) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 62.9 | 58.7 (-0.9) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.3 | 38.0 | 58.4 (-0.3) | 6.11 |
| 2013.03 | 111.3 | 57.9 | 57.5 (-0.9) | 10.56 |
| 2013.04 | 124.8 | 72.4 | 57.9 (+0.4) | 5.40 |
| 2013.05 | 131.4 | 78.7 | (59.3 projected, +1.4) | 9.73 |
| 2013.06 | 110.1 | 52.5 | (59.7 projected, +0.4) | 12.60 |
| 2013.07 | 115.5 | 57.0 | (60.0 projected, +0.3) | 9.47 |
| 2013.08 | 114.6 | 66.0 | (60.3 projected, +0.3) | 8.27 |
| 2013.09 | 102.6 | 36.9 | (60.2 projected, -0.1) | 5.23 |
| 2013.10 | 132.1 | 85.6 | (58.7 projected, -1.5) | 7.71 |
| 2013.11 | 148.9 (1) | 119.1 (2A) / 126.5 (2B) / 80.8 (2C) | (56.6 projected, -2.1) | (5.6) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
