Last major update issued on October 19, 2013 at 17:45 UTC. Updates are likely to be irregular or very late until October 25.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
daily)]
[Solar wind and
electron fluence charts (updated
daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update October 1, 2013)] [Cycle
24 progress (last update October 1, 2013) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last
update October 1, 2013)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and
24 (last update October 1, 2013)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006
(last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update
October 9, 2013)]
[POES auroral activity level since October
2009 - updated January 26, 2013]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated
October 10, 2013]
[Presentation
3rd
SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on October 18. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 346 and 413 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 139.9 (increasing 29.6 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 112.9. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.0). Three hour interval K indices: 11100021 (planetary), 10112221 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B9 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 16 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 275) and 14 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 207) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11861 [S08W80] failed to produce any major
events despite the complexity of the region.
C5+ flares: C5.0 at 10:34, C8.4 at 15:26 UTC.
Region 11864 [S22W71] was quiet and stable.
Region 11869 [N20W02] was quiet and stable.
Region 11870 [S15W59] was quiet and stable.
Region 11872 [S17E28] was quiet and stable.
Region 11873 [N11E36] lost all umbrae and had many penumbra spots.
Region 11874 [S11E07] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11875 [N07E59] developed slowly and has a small magnetic
delta structure in the trailing spot section. A minor M class flare is possible.
New region 11877 [S12E77] rotated into view with a large spot.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2753 [N18E10] was quiet and stable.
S2760 [S10W34] reemerged with a penumbra spot.
S2764 [N22W16] developed as new flux emerged. The region has an east-west
oriented inversion line.
New region S2769 [N17E54] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S2770 [S22E06] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S2771 [S13W08] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S2772 [N13W18] emerged with a penumbra spot.
October 16-18: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH591) in the northern hemisphere rotated across the central meridian on October 17. CH591 may be too far to the north to cause geomagnetic effects.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on October 19. There's a chance of weak coronal hole effects and quiet to unsettled conditions due to CH591 on October 20-21.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11861 | 2013.10.06 2013.10.07 |
16 | 15 | 10 | S07W79 | 0410 | EKI | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0600 |
| 11864 | 2013.10.07 2013.10.08 |
1 | 2 | 2 | S23W73 | 0020 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
location: S22W71 |
| 11865 | 2013.10.08 | S23W64 | part of AR 11864 | ||||||||
| 11876 | 2013.10.10 2013.10.17 |
N05W75 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| 11868 | 2013.10.11 2013.10.13 |
4 | N23W17 | 0010 | BXO | actual location: N17W19, SWPC has moved this region to the location of AR S2764 | |||||
| 11869 | 2013.10.12 2013.10.13 |
1 | 4 | 1 | N19E07 | 0010 | HSX | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N20W02 |
| S2753 | 2013.10.13 | 9 | 6 | N18E10 | 0040 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| 11870 | 2013.10.13 2013.10.14 |
3 | 7 | 1 | S15W58 | 0030 | CAO | CRO |
 |
 |
|
| S2756 | 2013.10.13 | S08W08 | plage | ||||||||
| 11871 | 2013.10.14 | N16E08 | plage | ||||||||
| 11872 | 2013.10.14 2013.10.15 |
1 | 4 | 3 | S16E28 | 0080 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
area: 0120 |
| 11873 | 2013.10.14 2013.10.16 |
9 | 18 | 11 | N11E36 | 0040 | CSO | BXI |
 |
 |
area: 0060 |
| S2759 | 2013.10.14 | S27W27 | plage | ||||||||
| S2760 | 2013.10.14 | 1 | S10W34 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| 11874 | 2013.10.16 2013.10.17 |
8 | 12 | 6 | S10E07 | 0050 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
|
| 11875 | 2013.10.16 2013.10.17 |
10 | 23 | 16 | N07E60 | 0150 | CAO | ESC |
 |
 |
area: 0250 |
| S2764 | 2013.10.16 | 12 | 6 | N22W16 | 0050 | DRI |
 |
 |
|||
| S2767 | 2013.10.17 | S05E40 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| 11877 | 2013.10.18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | S11E75 | 0120 | HSX | HKX |
 |
area: 0320 location: S12E77 |
|
| S2769 | 2013.10.18 | 2 | 2 | N17E54 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S2770 | 2013.10.18 | 3 | 1 | S22E06 | 0009 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S2771 | 2013.10.18 | 1 | 1 | S13W08 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S2772 | 2013.10.18 | 1 | N13W18 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 54 | 115 | 67 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 154 | 275 | 207 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 104 | 164 | 116 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 92 | 96 | 114 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011.11 | 153.5 (cycle peak) | 96.7 (cycle peak) | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) likely cycle 24 max |
8.81 |
| 2012.06 | 119.6 | 64.5 | 58.9 (-2.8) | 10.08 |
| 2012.07 | 133.9 | 66.5 | 57.8 (-1.1) | 13.90 |
| 2012.08 | 115.4 | 63.0 | 58.2 (+0.4) | 7.96 |
| 2012.09 | 122.9 | 61.4 | 58.1 (-0.1) | 8.07 |
| 2012.10 | 123.3 | 53.3 | 58.6 (+0.5) | 9.97 |
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 61.8 | 59.7 (+1.1) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 40.8 | 59.6 (-0.1) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 62.9 | 58.7 (-0.9) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.3 | 38.0 | 58.4 (-0.3) | 6.11 |
| 2013.03 | 111.3 | 57.9 | 57.5 (-0.9) | 10.56 |
| 2013.04 | 124.8 | 72.4 | (56.2 projected, -1.3) | 5.40 |
| 2013.05 | 131.4 | 78.7 | (55.8 projected, -0.4) | 9.73 |
| 2013.06 | 110.1 | 52.5 | (56.0 projected, +0.2) | 12.60 |
| 2013.07 | 115.5 | 57.0 | (56.1 projected, +0.1) | 9.47 |
| 2013.08 | 114.6 | 66.0 | (55.9 projected, -0.2) | 8.27 |
| 2013.09 | 102.6 | 36.9 | (55.4 projected, -0.5) | 5.23 |
| 2013.10 | 119.3 (1) | 60.3 (2A) / 103.8 (2B) / 60.2 (2C) | (53.9 projected, -1.5) | (10.78) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
