Last major update issued on July 9, 2014 at 04:45 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet on July 8. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 287 and 342 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 201.4 (increasing 33.0 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 138.5. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.6). Three hour interval K indices: 11112222 (planetary), 11222412 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 18 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 400) and 16 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 278) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12104 [S12W53] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12106 [N14W47] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12107 [S19W40] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 12108 [S07W26] still has a weak magnetic delta structure in the northwestern part of the large trailing penumbra. A major flare is possible.
Region 12109 [S08W06] saw no major changes. A major flare is still possible.
Region 12110 [S16W22] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12111 [N06E11] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 12113 [N09E50] gained many spots as new flux emerged. Further M class flaring is possible.
New region 12114 [S20E67] rotated into view on July 7 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.
New region 12115 [N07W38] emerged on July 6 with SWPC numbering the region 2 days later.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3609 [S14W41] was quiet and stable.
S3618 [N17E15] reemerged with penumbra spots.
S3622 [S22E06] was quiet and stable.
S3626 [S08W79] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S3630 [S28E69] emerged with a few spots.
New region S3631 [S15E62] emerged with penumbra spots to the northwest of AR 12114.
New region S3632 [S16E28] was observed with a penumbra spot.
New region S3633 [N15E33] emerged with a penumbra spot.
|Magnitude||Peak time (UTC)||Location||AR|
July 6-8: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH626) was in an Earth facing position on July 5.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on July 9 with a chance of unsettled intervals due to possible effects from CH626. On July 10-11 quiet conditions are likely.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
SWPCs position is that of AR S3626
real location: S14W85
real location: S19W85
SWPC has moved AR 12112 to the location of AR 12103, see AR 12103 comment
|Total spot count:||99||220||118|
|Sunspot number:||209||400||278||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||154||281||179||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||125||140||153||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2014.01||157.4||152.4||81.8||(78.2 projected, +2.2)||5.44|
|166.3||102.3 (cycle peak)||(79.7 projected, +1.5)||10.70|
|2014.03||149.9||148.5||91.9||(80.5 projected, +0.8)||4.88|
|2014.04||143.9||144.8||84.7||(79.7 projected, -0.8)||7.88|
|2014.05||129.7||132.9||75.2||(77.1 projected, -2.6)||5.75|
|2014.06||122.0||125.8||71.0||(74.5 projected, -2.6)||6.72|
|2014.07||185.0 (1)||51.1 (2A) / 198.1 (2B) / 99.7 (2C)||(71.5 projected, -3.0)||(4.5)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.