Last major update issued on June 11, 2014 at 04:50 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet on June 10. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 352 and 471 km/s, after 10h UTC likely under the influence of a low to moderate speed coronal hole stream.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 166.2 (increasing 3.0 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 139.6. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.6). Three hour interval K indices: 11122222 (planetary), 01233312 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 318) and 14 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 235) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12077 [S03W82] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12079 [N12W54] developed slowly and has polarity intermixing. A minor M class flare is possible.
Region 12080 [S11W37] decayed slowly losing spots and area. There is still a weak magnetic delta structure in the trailing spot section, a minor M class flare is possible.
Region 12082 [N15W28] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 12084 [S12W69] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12085 [S20W30] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 12086 [N04E08] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 12087 [S18E70] rotated into view on June 9 and was numbered the next day by SWPC. The region produced 2 X class flares. While the region still has a magnetic delta structure centrally, the delta became smaller after the flares. Further major flares are possible.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3510 [S12W19] was quiet and stable.
S3512 [N17E30] reemerged with several spots.
S3522 [S20E09] reemerged with penumbra spots.
S3524 [S16E30] was quiet and stable.
S3525 [N07W21] was quiet and stable.
New region S3526 [N24E79] rotated into view.
New region S3528 [N24W32] emerged with a penumbra spot.
|C2.1||00:07 (June 11)||S3512|
June 8-9: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and
June 10: An asymmetric full halo CME was observed after the X flares in AR 12087. The CME could reach Earth on June 13.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A small trans equatorial coronal hole (CH622) rotated into an Earth facing position on June 8-9.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on June 11. Onn June 11 and on June 12 there is a chance of unsettled intervals due to effects from CH622. On June 13-14 unsettled and active intervals are possible due to CME effects.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||79||168||95|
|Sunspot number:||149||318||235||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||117||214||141||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||89||111||129||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2013.12||147.7||143.1||90.3||(75.8 projected, +0.4)||4.68|
|2014.01||157.4||152.4||82.0||(76.4 projected, +0.6)||5.44|
|166.3||102.8 (cycle peak)||(76.2 projected, -0.2)||10.70|
|2014.03||149.9||148.5||92.2||(76.6 projected, +0.4)||4.88|
|2014.04||143.9||144.8||84.7||(75.8 projected, -0.8)||7.88|
|2014.05||129.7||132.9||75.2||(73.2 projected, -2.6)||5.75|
|2014.06||127.7 (1)||36.3 (2A) / 108.9 (2B) / 87.3 (2C)||(70.5 projected, -2.7)||(8.8)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.