Last major update issued on June 30, 2014 at 04:40 UTC.
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[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 29. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 303 and 363 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 125.7 (increasing 20.4 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 134.3. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.8). Three hour interval K indices: 21111013 (planetary), 22211323 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 212) and 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 153) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12096 [N10W23] was mostly unchanged and
produced a few low level C flares.
Region 12097 [N13W17] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12100 [N10E27] developed slowly and has polarity intermixing.
Region 12102 [N13E53] was quiet and stable.
Region 12104 [S10E67] is a compact region with polarity intermixing and a magnetic delta structure. A major flare is possible.
New region 12105 [S06E26] emerged on June 28 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.
New region 12106 [N15E75] rotated into view.
New region 12107 [S20E76] rotated into view with a large spot. C and minor M class flares are possible.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3587 [S23E07] decayed slowly and quietly.
S3590 [S23E62] decayed slowly and quietly.
S3591 [S12E44] was quiet and stable.
New region S3595 [N17W27] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S3596 [N08W32] emerged with a penumbra spot.
|Magnitude||Peak time (UTC)||Location||AR|
June 27-29: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH624) was in an Earth facing position on June 27.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on June 30-July 2. On June 30 there is a possibility of unsettled intervals due to weak effects from CH624.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||32||82||43|
|Sunspot number:||112||212||153||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||68||124||85||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||67||74||84||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2013.12||147.7||143.1||90.3||(75.8 projected, +0.4)||4.68|
|2014.01||157.4||152.4||82.0||(76.4 projected, +0.6)||5.44|
|166.3||102.8 (cycle peak)||(76.2 projected, -0.2)||10.70|
|2014.03||149.9||148.5||92.2||(76.6 projected, +0.4)||4.88|
|2014.04||143.9||144.8||84.7||(75.8 projected, -0.8)||7.88|
|2014.05||129.7||132.9||75.2||(73.2 projected, -2.6)||5.75|
|2014.06||121.3 (1)||103.7 (2A) / 107.3 (2B) / 78.4 (2C)||(70.5 projected, -2.7)||(6.8)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.