Last major update issued on November 8, 2014 at 05:40 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update October 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update November 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update November 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update November 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update November 1, 2014)]
[Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (updated daily)]
[POES auroral activity level October
2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated October 11, 2014]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 7. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 442 and 532 km/s.
Solar flux at 22h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 132.0 (increasing 20.0 over the last solar rotation, the measurements at 18 and 20h UTC were flare enhanced). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 141.5. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.4). Three hour interval K indices: 22122223 (planetary), 22322423 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 246) and 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 156) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12201 [S06W46] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12203 [N13W75] was quiet and stable.
Region 12204 [N04W28] was quiet and stable.
Region 12205 [N14E32] still has multiple magnetic deltas, two of them quite strong with poor separation of opposite polarity umbrae. Another X class flare is possible.
Region 12206 [S14E07] decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3963 [S24E33] decayed slowly and quietly.
S3964 [S16E25] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S3968 [N07W68] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S3970 [S05E54] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S3971 [S09E61] rotated into view with penumbra spots.
New region S3972 [S08E80] rotated into view.
New region S3973 [N18E61] rotated into view.
New region S3974 [N18E02] was observed with a penumbra spot.
C2+ flares (GOES):
|Magnitude||Peak time (UTC)||Location||AR||Comment|
November 5: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.
November 6: A partial halo CME was observed after the M5.4 LDE in AR 12205.
November 7: At least a partial halo CME was observed in association with the X1.6 LDE in AR 12205.
[Coronal hole history (since October
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on November 8. On November 9-10 there's a chance of unsettled to minor storm conditions should the CMEs observed on November 6-7 reach Earth.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||56||116||56|
|Sunspot number:||96||246||156||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||76||134||74||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||58||86||86||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|166.3||102.3 (cycle peak)||78.4 (+1.1)||10.70|
(likely solar max)
|2014.05||129.7||132.9||75.2||(80.3 projected, -1.6)||5.75|
|2014.06||122.0||125.8||71.0||(78.7 projected, -1.6)||6.72|
|2014.07||137.4||141.8||72.5||(77.1 projected, -1.6)||4.50|
|2014.08||124.7||127.9||74.7||(74.7 projected, -3.0)||7.71|
|2014.09||146.6||148.1||87.6||(71.5 projected, -3.2)||9.78|
|2014.10||153.4||152.9||60.6||(69.0 projected, -2.5)||8.96|
|2014.11||128.7 (1)||22.7 (2A) / 97.3 (2B) / 80.5 (2C)||(67.3 projected, -1.7)||(8.3)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.