Last major update issued on April 13, 2015 at 05:40 UT
[Solar and geomagnetic
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[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update April 1, 2015)]
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[Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (updated daily)]
[POES auroral activity
level October 2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated April 10, 2015]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]
The geomagnetic field was very quiet on April 12. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 338 and 393 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 133.9 (increasing 16.7 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 126.1. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.0). Three hour interval K indices: 01101111 (planetary), 11112221 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 161) and 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 134) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12320 [S13W60] was unstable and produced a
few C flares.
Region 12321 [N12E56] was mostly unchanged and has no significant polarity intermixing. The region produced several C flares and has M class flare potential.
Region 12322 [N14E28] was quiet and stable.
Region 12323 [S16W47] decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S4362 [S05E16] was quiet and stable.
S4367 [N08E63] produced a minor M class flare.
S4368 [N16E64] was quiet and stable.
New region S4369 [S04W01] emerged with penumbra spots and has polarity intermixing.
New region S4370 [S19W14] emerged with a penumbra spot.
A large and compact region is rotating into view at the northeast limb early on April 13. M flares are possible.
|Magnitude||Peak time (UTC)||Location||AR||Recorded by||Comment|
|C2.9||01:21||NE limb||GOES15||attributed to AR 12321 by SWPC|
|M1.1 (LDE)||09:50||N08E75||S4367||GOES15||SWPC wrongly states location as N13E62|
|C9.0||18:07||12321||GOES15||M1.1 @ SDO/EVE|
|C2.3||19:38||NE limb||GOES15||attributed to AR 12321 by SWPC|
April 10-12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]
An extension (CH663) of the southern polar coronal hole could be associated with a co-rotating interaction region. The extension rotated across the central meridian on April 11-12.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on April 13-14 and quiet to unsettled on April 15 due to effects from a co-rotating interaction region associated with CH662.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||24||71||44|
|Sunspot number:||64||161||134||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||45||102||75||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||38||56||74||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average
|166.3||102.3 (cycle peak)||78.4 (+1.1)||10.70|
(likely solar max)
|2014.10||153.4||152.9||60.6||(67.3 projected, -3.6)||8.96|
|2014.11||154.8||151.4||70.1||(64.7 projected, -2.6)||9.33|
|2014.12||158.7||153.8||78.0||(62.4 projected, -2.3)||11.24|
|2015.01||141.9||137.3||67.0||(60.2 projected, -2.2)||9.46|
|2015.02||129.1||126.0||44.8||(58.4 projected, -1.8)||9.92|
|2015.03||125.9||124.6||38.4||(56.1 projected, -2.3)||16.14|
|2015.04||(119.0)||21.0 (2A) / 52.4 (2B) / 66.8 (2C)||(53.4 projected, -2.7)||(9.3)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.