Last major update issued on March 14, 2015 at 06:30 UT.
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[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 13. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 350 and 428 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 119.4 (decreasing 1.0 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 136.7. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.4). Three hour interval K indices: 10123111 (planetary), 10014312 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 7 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 134) and 6 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 100) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12296 [S11W67] decayed quickly and will likely become spotless
Region 12297 [S17W10] decayed significantly losing penumbral area and spot. There are still 2 significant magnetic deltas and M class flaring is likely.
Region 12299 [S05E48] decayed and was mostly quiet.
New region 12300 [N15W49] emerged on March 10 and was numbered by SWPC 3 days later as the region began to decay.
New region 12301 [S15E15] emerged on March 11 with SWPC numbering the region 2 days later. Slow decay was observed on March 13.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S4270 [S22W35] reemerged with penumbra spots.
S4278 [N13W01] was quiet and stable.
C2+ flares (GOES):
|Magnitude||Peak time (UTC)||Location||AR||Comment|
|C6.0||05:53||12297||added from SDO/EVE|
SDO/EVE/ESP XRS-B proxy
March 12-13: No obviously
Earth directed CMEs were observed.
March 11: A filament eruption in the northwest quadrant beginning at 07:37 UT was associated with a CME off the northwest limb. No LASCO imagery after the X2 event in AR 12297 is available as this is written. In SDO/AIA imagery the flare appears to have been "dry", ie. not associated with a significant CME. Interesting filament activity was observed near center disc at the end of the day.
history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]
An extension (CH659) of the southern polar coronal hole will likely rotate over the central meridian on March 14-15. This, and a northern hemisphere coronal hole, could be associated with co-rotating interaction regions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on March 14-15. On March 16-18 there's a chance of unsettled to minor storm conditions due to effects from co-rotating interaction regions and CH659.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
SWPC has this as AR 12298
|12298||2015.03.11||3||S11W66||0010||AXX||originally AR 12296|
|Total spot count:||37||64||40|
|Sunspot number:||87||134||100||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||50||80||56||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||52||47||55||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average
|166.3||102.3 (cycle peak)||78.4 (+1.1)||10.70|
(likely solar max)
|2014.09||146.6||148.1||87.6||(71.6 projected, -4.0)||9.78|
|2014.10||153.4||152.9||60.6||(69.2 projected, -2.4)||8.96|
|2014.11||154.8||151.4||70.1||(67.4 projected, -1.8)||9.33|
|2014.12||158.7||153.8||78.0||(66.3 projected, -1.1)||11.24|
|2015.01||141.9||137.3||67.0||(65.1 projected, -1.2)||9.46|
|2015.02||129.1||126.0||44.8||(63.6 projected, -1.5)||9.92|
|2015.03||(126.5)||18.7 (2A) / 44.5 (2B) / 55.1 (2C)||(61.6 projected, -2.0)||(11.2)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.