The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 10 due to effects from CH671. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 563 and 648 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 135.4 (decreasing 9.7 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 125.7. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 12 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 11.5). Three hour interval K indices: 32333223 (planetary), ******22 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 233) and 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 133) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12360 [N14W44] decayed slowly and produced 2
level C flares.
Region 12361 [N19W15] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 12362 [N07W10] decayed losing mature penumbra and spots.
Region 12364 [S05E09] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12365 [S13E08] gained spots and has polarity
intermixing. Further C class flaring is possible.
Region 12366 [N18E07] gained penumbral area and was mostly quiet.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S4530 [N12W01] was quiet and stable.
S4531 [S09E21] was quiet and stable.
S4534 [S22W14] was quiet and stable.
S4535 [S07W12] was quiet and stable.
New region S4536 [S15W28] was observed with penumbra spots.
New region S4537 [S19E86] rotated partially into view and was the
most active flare producer during the day. M class flaring is possible.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UTC) | Location | AR | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.4 (LDE) | 00:57 | 12365 | SDO/EVE | C1.8 @ GOES15 | |
| C2.5 | 01:41 | N13W33 | 12360 | GOES15 | |
| C6.0 | 02:26 | S19E90 | S4537 | GOES15 | |
| C3.1 | 12:44 | 12360 | SDO/EVE | ||
| C3.3 | 13:05 | S4537 | GOES15 | C4.0 @ SDO/EVE | |
| C2.2 | 18:08 | S4537 | GOES15 | ||
| C2.9 | 20:22 | 12361 | SDO/EVE | ||
| C2.7 | 20:36 | SDO/EVE | uncertain, either 12361 or S4537 | ||
| C2.1 | 21:28 | 12365 | SDO/EVE | C1.5 @ GOES15 |
June 8, 10: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
June 9: A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO imagery late on
June 9 and early on June 10. The source is uncertain but may be associated with
a C2 event in AR 12364.
[Coronal hole
history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH672) will rotate across the central meridian on June 10-11.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on June 11-12. Effects from CH672 could cause quiet to active conditions on June 13-14 with a chance of minor storm intervals.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution)
Compare to the previous day's image.
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12358 | 2015.05.31 | S03W66 |
|
||||||||
| 12360 | 2015.06.01 2015.06.03 |
20 | 35 | 19 | N15W43 | 0070 | EAI | EAI | images/AR_12360_20150610_2345.png | images/AR_12360_20150609_2345.png | |
| 12361 | 2015.06.03 2015.06.04 |
3 | 15 | 7 | N17W16 | 0020 | CSO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N19W15 |
| 12362 | 2015.06.03 2015.06.04 |
7 | 16 | 9 | N06W13 | 0050 | CSO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: N07W10 |
| S4526 | 2015.06.04 | S12W27 | |||||||||
| 12365 | 2015.06.05 2015.06.06 |
4 | 17 | 6 | S13E07 | 0060 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0140 beta-gamma reversed polarities |
| 12364 | 2015.06.05 2015.06.06 |
2 | 5 | S07E11 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S05E09 |
|
| 12366 | 2015.06.06 2015.06.07 |
9 | 12 | 9 | N17E05 | 0040 | DAO | DAI |
 |
 |
area: 0100 |
| S4530 | 2015.06.07 | 1 | 1 | N12W01 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S4531 | 2015.06.08 | 4 | S09E21 | 0009 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S4532 | 2015.06.09 | N07E02 |
 |
||||||||
| S4533 | 2015.06.09 | S32E37 |
 |
||||||||
| S4534 | 2015.06.09 | 2 | S22W14 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S4535 | 2015.06.09 | 2 | 1 | S07W12 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S4536 | 2015.06.10 | 3 | 1 | S15W28 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S4537 | 2015.06.10 | 1 | S19E86 | 0020 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 45 | 113 | 53 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 105 | 233 | 133 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 70 | 136 | 76 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 63 | 82 | 73 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number) | |||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.01 | 157.4 | 152.4 | 81.8 | 77.3 (+1.3) | 5.44 |
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 102.3 (cycle peak) | 78.4 (+1.1) | 10.70 |
| 2014.03 | 149.9 | 148.5 | 91.9 | 80.8 (+2.4) | 4.88 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 84.7 | 81.9 (+1.1) (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2014.05 | 129.7 | 132.9 | 75.2 | 80.5 (-1.4) | 5.75 |
| 2014.06 | 122.0 | 125.8 | 71.0 | 79.7 (-0.8) | 6.72 |
| 2014.07 | 137.4 | 141.8 | 72.5 | 78.5 (-1.2) | 4.50 |
| 2014.08 | 124.7 | 127.9 | 74.7 | 75.5 (-3.0) | 7.71 |
| 2014.09 | 146.6 | 148.1 | 87.6 | 70.8 (-4.7) | 9.78 |
| 2014.10 | 153.4 | 152.9 | 60.6 | 67.3 (-3.5) | 8.96 |
| 2014.11 | 154.8 | 151.4 | 70.1 | 65.4 (-1.9) | 9.33 |
| 2014.12 | 158.7 | 153.8 | 78.0 | (63.5 projected, -1.9) | 11.24 |
| 2015.01 | 141.9 | 137.3 | 67.0 | (61.3 projected, -2.2) | 9.46 |
| 2015.02 | 129.1 | 126.0 | 44.8 | (59.6 projected, -1.7) | 9.92 |
| 2015.03 | 125.9 | 124.6 | 38.4 | (57.2 projected, -2.4) | 16.14 |
| 2015.04 | 128.8 | 129.7 | 54.4 | (54.6 projected, -2.6) | 10.73 |
| 2015.05 | 120.0 | 122.6 | 58.8 | (52.4 projected, -2.2) | 8.29 |
| 2015.06 | (122.5) | 30.5 (2A)/ 91.5 (2B) / 69.4 (2C) | (49.6 projected, -2.8) | (8.2) | |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day
average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red are based on the definitive
international
GFZ Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
