Last major update issued on March 6, 2015 at 05:35 UT.
[Solar and geomagnetic
data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update March 1, 2015)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update March 1, 2015) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update March 1, 2015)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update March 1, 2015)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update March 1, 2015)]
[Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (updated daily)]
[POES auroral activity
level October 2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated February 21, 2015]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on March 5. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 389 and 471 km/s.
Solar flux at 17h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 126.6 (decreasing 16.7 over the last solar rotation, the measurement at 20h UT was flare enhanced). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 138.0. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.8). Three hour interval K indices: 10112211 (planetary), 10122322 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 147) and 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 101) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12293 [N05W55] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 12295 [S07W53] emerged on February 4 and was numbered by SWPC the next day. Slow decay was observed late in the day.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S4251 [S03W22] was quiet and stable.
S4254 [S11E38] was quiet and stable.
S4256 [S08W02] was quiet and stable.
S4263 [S22W37] was quiet and stable.
New region S4265 [S27E34] was observed with penumbra spots.
New region S4266 [S44E33] emerged at a high latitude.
New region S4267 [S17W09] was observed with penumbra spots.
AR 12292 developed in the western section as it rotated over the southwest limb and might be capable of producing an M class flare today while still near the limb.
An active region at the southeast limb is very active and has caused a significant increase in the background x-ray flux. The region was the source of a long duration M3.0 event peaking at 04:50 UT on March 6. A major flare is possible.
C2+ flares (GOES):
|Magnitude||Peak time (UTC)||Location||AR||Comment|
|C3.3||17:14||SW limb filament eruption|
|M1.2 (LDE)||18:11||SE limb||not yet numbered|
|C4.0||19:55||12292||NOAA attributed this to quiet AR 12293|
March 3-5: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.
history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH657) was in an Earth facing position on March 3-5.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on March 6-8 due to effects from CH657.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|S08W84||spots rotated out of view|
|Total spot count:||11||57||21|
|Sunspot number:||31||147||101||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||16||63||27||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||19||51||56||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average
|166.3||102.3 (cycle peak)||78.4 (+1.1)||10.70|
(likely solar max)
|2014.09||146.6||148.1||87.6||(71.6 projected, -4.0)||9.78|
|2014.10||153.4||152.9||60.6||(69.2 projected, -2.4)||8.96|
|2014.11||154.8||151.4||70.1||(67.4 projected, -1.8)||9.33|
|2014.12||158.7||153.8||78.0||(66.3 projected, -1.1)||11.24|
|2015.01||141.9||137.3||67.0||(65.1 projected, -1.2)||9.46|
|2015.02||129.1||126.0||44.8||(63.6 projected, -1.5)||9.92|
|2015.03||(126.8)||7.8 (2A) / 48.6 (2B) / 61.4 (2C)||(61.6 projected, -2.0)||(15.2)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.