|Charts (* = updated daily)||Data and archive|
|Solar wind (*)||Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)|
|Electron fluence (*)||Archived daily reports and monthly data from 2003.01 (May 1, 2015)|
|Solar cycle||Solar cycles 23-24 (May 1, 2015)||Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)|
|Cycle 24 progress (May 1, 2015)||Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (*)|
|Solar cycles 1-20||POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012|
|Comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (May 1, 2015)||3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013|
|Comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (May 1, 2015)||4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014|
|Solar polar fields vs solar cycles (May 9, 2015)|
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on May 12, likely under the influence of effects from a recurrent co-rotating interaction region associated with CH667. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 337 and 450 km/s. An increase in solar wind speed was observed early on May 13 as the geomagnetic disturbance intensified.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 163.2 (increasing 8.5 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 126.6. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 13 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 13.1). Three hour interval K indices: 23333233 (planetary), 33444343 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 16 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 347) and 13 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 226) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12338 [N04W65] reemerged with a few spots.
Region 12339 [N12W19] decayed slowly prodcing low level C flares. Even if the region has become less complex magnetically there is still a chance of an M class flare.
Region 12340 [S08E03] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12341 [S20E08] was quiet and stable.
Region 12342 [N17E22] developed as new flux emerged. The region has polarity intermixing and could produce C flares.
Region 12343 [N09E13] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12344 [S10E44] developed slowly and was quiet.
Region 12345 [N15W04] was quiet and stable.
Region 12346 [S07E55] developed slowly and was quiet.
Region 12347 [N05E53] was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S4459 [N12E27] developed slowly and remained quiet.
New region S4463 [N07E23] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S4465 [S10E86] rotated into view.
New region S4466 [N13E70] emerged with a few spots.
New region S4467 [N23E72] rotated into view with a penumbra spot.
New region S4468 [N13E55] emerged with a penumbra spot.
|Magnitude||Peak time (UTC)||Location||AR||Recorded by||Comment|
|C2.6 (LDE)||03:02||SW limb||GOES15||wrongly attributed to AR 12339 by SWPC
C3.8 @ 03:10 @ SDO/EVE
|C3.0/1N||11:51||N06W05||S4464||GOES15||attributed to AR 12339 by SWPC. AR S4464 was a shortlived region|
May 10-12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]
A recurrent extension (CH667) of the southern polar coronal hole rotated across the central meridian on May 8-9 and may be associated with a co-rotating interaction region. A recurrent southern hemipshere coronal hole (CH668) will probably rotate into an Earth facing position on May 14-15.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on May 13 due to effects from CH667 and a co-rotating interaction region. Quiet to unsettled is likely on May 14-15.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image.
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
|12335||2015.04.30||2||S14W85||0010||BXO||rotated out of view|
|Total spot count:||70||187||96|
|Sunspot number:||170||347||226||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||98||226||135||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||102||121||124||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average
|166.3||102.3 (cycle peak)||78.4 (+1.1)||10.70|
|2014.04||143.9||144.8||84.7||81.9 (+1.1) (solar max)||7.88|
|2014.11||154.8||151.4||70.1||(64.9 projected, -2.4)||9.33|
|2014.12||158.7||153.8||78.0||(62.6 projected, -2.3)||11.24|
|2015.01||141.9||137.3||67.0||(60.4 projected, -2.2)||9.46|
|2015.02||129.1||126.0||44.8||(58.7 projected, -1.7)||9.92|
|2015.03||125.9||124.6||38.4||(56.3 projected, -2.4)||16.14|
|2015.04||128.8||129.7||54.4||(53.7 projected, -2.6)||10.3|
|2015.05||(136.8)||41.7 (2A) / 107.7 (2B) / 87.3 (2C)||(51.5 projected, -2.2)||(8.4)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.