|Charts (* = updated daily||Data and archive|
|Solar wind (*)||Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)|
|Electron fluence (*)||Archived daily reports and monthly data from 2003.01 (May 1, 2016)|
|Solar cycle||Solar cycles 23-24 (May 1, 2016)||Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)|
|Cycle 24 progress (May 1, 2016)||Noon SDO sunspot count 1K / 4K (*)|
|Solar cycles 1-24 (July 17, 2015)||POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012|
|Comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (May 1, 2016)||3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013|
|Comparison of cycles 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (May 1, 2016)||4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014|
|Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 20, 2016)|
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on May 10 under the decreasing influence of effects from CH733. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 540 and 693 km/s.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 88.7 (decreasing 19.5 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 92.8. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 12 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 12.4). Three hour interval K indices: 34323222 (planetary), 34333332 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 6 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 120) and 6 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 98) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12542 [N12W10] was quiet and has polarity intermixing. C
flares are possible.
Region 12543 [S05W13] lost spots and gained area as it matured. A C class flare is possible.
Region 12544 [N21E48] was quiet and stable.
New region 12545 [S20E05] emerged on May 8 and was numbered by SWPC two days later.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S5276 [N20E52] emerged near AR 12544 with tiny spots.
New region S5277 [N08E22] emerged with a tiny spot.
|Magnitude||Peak time (UT)||Location||AR||Recorded by||Comment|
May 8-10: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery. A filament eruption in the central northern hemisphere on May 9 may have been associated with a CME with potentially Earth directed components, however, the lack of LASCO imagery at the time makes any forecast of CME effects uncertain.
history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]
A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH734) will likely rotate across the central meridian on May 12-13, no disturbance was associated with the CH on the previous rotation.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on May 11 due to weakening effects from CH733. If a CME was associated with the filament eruption on May 9, the CME could arrive late on May 12 and cause unsettled to active conditions, otherwise May 12-13 should see mostly quiet conditions.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
|Total spot count:||30||60||38|
|Sunspot number:||70||120||98||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||48||78||56||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||77||66||78||k * (sunspot number)
As of May 7, 2016: k = 1.1 for SWPC, k = 0.55 for MSN 2K, k = 0.80 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number (4)||Average
|166.3||146.1 (cycle peak)||110.5 (+1.2)||10.70|
|2014.04||143.9||144.8||112.5||116.4 (+2.1) (solar max)||7.88|
|2015.11||109.3||106.9||63.2||(61.2 projected, -3.2)||12.09|
|2015.12||113.1||109.5||57.7||(58.8 projected, -2.4)||14.29|
|2016.01||103.4||100.1||56.6||(57.1 projected, -1.7)||9.4|
|2016.02||103.6||101.0||57.2||(54.8 projected, -2.3)||9.9|
|2016.03||91.5||90.6||54.9||(51.9 projected, -2.9)||10.58|
|2016.04||93.3||94.0||38.0||(49.1 projected, -2.8)||9.03|
|2016.05||(88.8)||19.9 (2A) / 61.7 (2B) / 55.1 (2C)||(47.2 projected, -1.9)||(18.3)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Updated to new data set from WDC-SILSO on July 1, 2015
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.