Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on March 1, 2017 at 04:35 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (February 5, 2017)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-24 (February 1, 2017) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24 progress (February 1, 2017) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 17, 2015) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012
  Comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (February 1, 2017) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (February 1, 2017) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (February 5, 2017)  

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on February 28, weakly under the influence of effects from CH792. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 359 and 447 km/s.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 81.6 (increasing 5.6 over the last solar rotation). The average 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 74.2. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.6). Three hour interval K indices: 32111122 (planetary), 22112222 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A8 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 4 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 69) and in 4 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 54) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12638 [N16W42] was quiet and stable.
Region 12640 [N09W04] decayed losing spots and area.
Region 12641 [N14E32] developed early in the day, then decayed and simplified magnetically.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S5617 [N15E24] developed further and was mostly quiet. SWPC claimed the spots were new leader spots of AR 12641, a major interpretational error.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location AR Recorded by Comment
           

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

February 26-28: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH792) was Earth facing on February 25-26. An elongated trans equatorial coronal hole (CH793) will likely rotate across the central meridian on March 1-2.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on March 1 due to effects from CH792 and quiet to unsettled on March 2 becoming quiet on March 3. March 4-5 could see quiet to unsettled conditions due to effects from CH793.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12637 2017.02.18
2017.02.19
      S04W73           location: S05W56
12638 2017.02.19
2017.02.20
1 1 1 N16W43 0080 HSX HSX  
12640 2017.02.23
2017.02.24
2 5 4 N08W04 0030 AXX CRO

 

S5612 2017.02.23       S18W16            
12639 2017.02.24       S08W88          
S5614 2017.02.24       N13E03            
S5615 2017.02.26       N13W15          
12641 2017.02.27 6 14 5 N15E26 0100 CAO DAI beta-gamma

location: N14E32
wrong location from SWPC due to interpretational error

S5617 2017.02.27   9 4 N15E24 0050   DAO

 

Total spot count: 9 29 14  
Sunspot number: 39 69 54  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 19 47 32  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 43 38 43 k * (sunspot number)
As of May 7, 2016: k = 1.1 for SWPC, k = 0.55 for MSN 2K, k = 0.80 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO) (4)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (cycle peak) 110.5 (+1.2) 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (+2.1) (solar max) 7.88
2015.11 109.3 106.9 62.2 61.3 (-3.0) 12.09
2015.12 113.1 109.5 58.0 57.8 (-3.5) 14.29
2016.01 103.4 100.1 57.0 54.4 (-3.4) 9.4
2016.02 103.6 101.0 56.4 52.5 (-1.9) 9.9
2016.03 91.5 90.6 54.1 50.5 (-2.0) 10.58
2016.04 93.3 94.0 38.0 47.8 (-2.7) 9.03
2016.05 93.0 95.3 52.1 44.9 (-2.9) 11.65
2016.06 81.9 84.5 20.9 41.6 (-3.3) 8.44
2016.07 86.0 88.9 32.5 38.6 (-3.0) 9.43
2016.08 85.0 87.1 50.7 (36.1 projected, -2.5) 9.61
2016.09 87.7 88.7 44.7 (33.2 projected, -2.9) 14.54
2016.10 86.1 85.6 33.6 (31.2 projected, -2.0) 15.33
2016.11 78.6 76.9 21.4 (29.4 projected, -1.8) 9.11
2016.12 75.1 72.8 18.9 (27.8 projected, -1.6) 9.34
2017.01 77.3 74.9 25.8 (27.0 projected, -0.8) 9.45
2017.02 (76.9)   22.0 (2A/2B) / 25.4 (2C) (25.2 projected, -1.8) (9.2)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Updated to new data set from WDC-SILSO on July 1, 2015

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.