The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on March 9. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 341 and 484km/s. Solar wind parameters indicate the arrival of a weak shock at 17:19 UT at DSCOVR. The total field of the interplanetary magnetic field intensified significantly late in the day and has since remained at a fairly high level, strongly suggesting that the source of this disturbance is a small CME associated with the filament that erupted on March 6. While the eruption created a short lived coronal hole, solar wind parameters are in no way indicative of a coronal hole disturbance.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 67.5 (decreasing 10.7 over the previous solar rotation). The average 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 69.0. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 9 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.3). Three hour interval K indices: 33111124 (planetary), 33121224 (Boulder)
The background x-ray flux is at the class A2 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), no spots were observed using 1K/2K resolution SDO images.
C2+ flares:
Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | AR | Recorded by | Comment |
March 7-9: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28
days ago 27
days ago 26
days ago]
An extension (CH855) of the northern polar coronal hole was in an Earth facing position on March 4-5. A short lived coronal hole formed in the southeastern quadrant near the center of the visible disk late on March 6 following a filament eruption, it is possible that effects from this coronal hole will be briefly observed on March 10. A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH857) will likely rotate into and Earth facing position on March 10-13.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on March 10 due to weak CME effects. Quiet conditions are likely on March 11-12. Quiet to minor storm conditions are possible on March 13-17 due to effects from CH857
Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has
arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K
resolution. Compare
to the previous day's image.
0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SWPC | Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
2K | 1K | ||||||||||
S5914 | 2018.03.06 | S14W09 | |||||||||
S5915 | 2018.03.06 | S37W41 | |||||||||
S5916 | 2018.03.07 | S10W00 | |||||||||
S5917 | 2018.03.08 | S18E27 | |||||||||
Total spot count: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||
Sunspot number: | 0 | 0 | 0 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
Weighted SN: | 0 | 0 | 0 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 0 | 0 | 0 | k * (sunspot number) As of May 7, 2016: k = 1.1 for SWPC, k = 0.55 for MSN 2K, k = 0.80 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number) |
Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) (4) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Measured | 1 AU | ||||
2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (cycle peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
2016.08 | 85.0 | 87.1 | 50.7 | 36.0 (-2.6) | 9.61 |
2016.09 | 87.7 | 88.7 | 44.7 | 33.3 (-2.7) | 14.54 |
2016.10 | 86.1 | 85.6 | 33.6 | 31.4 (-1.9) | 15.33 |
2016.11 | 78.6 | 76.9 | 21.4 | 29.9 (-1.5) | 9.11 |
2016.12 | 75.1 | 72.8 | 18.9 | 28.5 (-1.4) | 9.34 |
2017.01 | 77.3 | 74.9 | 25.8 | 27.9 (-0.6) | 9.45 |
2017.02 | 76.8 | 75.0 | 26.1 | 26.6 (-1.3) | 9.58 |
2017.03 | 74.6 | 73.9 | 17.7 | 25.8 (-0.8) | 14.20 |
2017.04 | 80.3 | 80.8 | 32.6 | 24.9 (-0.9) | 11.70 |
2017.05 | 73.6 | 75.2 | 18.8 | 23.4 (-1.5) | 8.09 |
2017.06 | 74.7 | 77.1 | 19.4 | 22.3 (-1.1) | 6.08 |
2017.07 | 77.4 | 79.9 | 18.3 | 21.0 (-1.3) | 8.97 |
2017.08 | 77.9 | 79.8 | 33.1 | 19.5 (-1.5) | 10.66 |
2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | (18.4 projected, -1.1) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
2017.10 | 76.4 | 75.6 | 13.2 | (16.8 projected, -1.6) | 10.30 |
2017.11 | 72.2 | 70.6 | 5.7 | (15.2 projected, -1.6) | 10.06 |
2017.12 | 71.6 | 69.3 | 8.2 | (14.3 projected, -0.9) | 7.33 |
2018.01 | 69.9 | 67.7 | 6.7 | (13.2 projected, -1.1) | 5.53 |
2018.02 | 72.0 | 70.2 | 10.6 | (11.5 projected, -1.7) | 6.40 |
2018.03 | (67.5) | 0.6 (2A) / 2.5 (2B) / 8.6 (2C) | (8.9 projected, -2.6) | (4.5) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red are based on the
definitive international GFZ
Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Updated to new data set from WDC-SILSO on July 1, 2015
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.