Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on November 16, 2003 at 04:55 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 4, 2003)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2003 (last update October 15, 2003)]
[Archived reports (last update November 12, 2003)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was unsettled to major storm on November 15. Solar wind speed ranged between 585 and 779 km/sec, mostly under the influence of a high speed stream from coronal hole CH66. A moderate solar wind shock was observed at ACE at 05:20 UTC with a sudden increase in solar wind speed to 750 km/sec. This shock was likely related to the arrival of the CME observed after a long duration M1 event in region 10501 on November 13. The CME influenced the solar wind until approximately 15h UTC.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 97.8. The planetary A index was 40 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 41.4).
Three hour interval K indices: 34655544 (planetary), 34654534 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.

At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible disk. Solar flare activity was low. A total of 3 C class events were recorded during the day.

Region 10501 decayed slightly with the loss of a minor part of the penumbral area. The magnetic delta structure in the northernmost penumbra weakened. A few new spots emerged. Occasional M class flares are possible. Flares: C1.2 at 04:44, C1.0 at 17:32 and C2.0 at 19:12 UTC.
New region 10503 emerged in the northeast quadrant.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S302] This region emerged on November 14 in the northwest quadrant. Slow development was observed on November 15. Location at midnight: N05W35.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 14-15: No partly or fully earth directed CMEs observed.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A well defined recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH66) was in a geoeffective position on November 9-14. A coronal hole (CH67) in the northern hemisphere may have been in a geoeffective position on November 15-16.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:05 UTC on November 16. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.


The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm on November 16-17 due to a high speed stream from coronal hole CH66. Quiet to active is likely on November 18-19.

Long distance low frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is poor. [Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are currently monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay with a weak signal].

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)
Coronal hole indicator CME indicator M and X class flare indicator

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered SEC
Location at midnight Area Classification Comment
10501 2003.11.13 14 19 N03E48 0340 DKI gamma-delta
classification was DAI
at midnight
10502 2003.11.14 1   N04E27 0000 AXX spotless
10503 2003.11.15 7 5 N17E09 0020 DAO classification was DSO
at midnight, area 0040
S302 emerged on
  2 N05W35 0020 CSO  
S303 emerged on
    N12W14     plage
Total spot count: 22 26
SSN: 52 56

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar
flux at Earth
International sunspot number Smoothed sunspot number
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)
2002.10 167.0 97.5 90.5 (-4.1)
2002.11 168.7 95.5 85.2 (-5.3)
2002.12 157.2 80.8 82.0 (-3.2)
2003.01 144.0 79.7 80.9 (-1.1)
2003.02 124.5 46.0 78.5 (-2.4)
2003.03 131.4 61.1 74.1 (-4.4)
2003.04 126.4 60.0 70.3 (-3.8)
2003.05 115.7 55.2 (66.8 predicted, -3.5)
2003.06 129.3 77.4 (63.0 predicted, -3.8)
2003.07 127.7 85.0 (59.3 predicted, -3.7)
2003.08 122.1 72.7 (56.3 predicted, -3.0)
2003.09 112.2 48.8 (54.3 predicted, -2.0)
2003.10 151.7 65.6 (51.6 predicted, -2.7)
2003.11 120.8 (1) 32.6 (2) (48.9 predicted, -2.7)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

[DX-Listeners' Club]