Last major update issued on June 17, 2004 at 03:30 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2004)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2004)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2004)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update April 28, 2004)]
[Archived reports (last update June 14, 2004)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 16. Solar wind speed ranged between 468 and 580 km/sec under the influence of a high speed stream from coronal hole CH101. Solar wind speed decreased slowly after 08h UTC as the high speed stream weakened.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 111.5. The planetary A
index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.5).
Three hour interval K indices: 22322211 (planetary), 22422222 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.
At midnight there were 5 spotted regions on the visible disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 1 C class event was recorded during the day.
Region 10631 developed penumbra on both polarities.
Region 10632 was quiet and stable.
Region 10633 was quiet and stable.
Region 10634 developed in the leading penumbra while slow decay was observed in the central and trailing spot sections. A minor M class flare is possible.
Region 10635 was mostly unchanged and remains capable of producing a minor M class flare. Flare: C2.8 at 04:34 UTC. This event was associated with a CME observed over the east limb.
June 14-16: No fully or partly Earth directed CMEs observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH102) was in a geoeffective position on June 14-15.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 13:05 UTC on June 15. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 17-18 with a chance of active intervals due to a high speed stream from coronal hole CH102. Quiet to unsettled is likely on June 19-20.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is fair to good. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay. Radio Vibración (Venezuela) was noted at times. After local sunrise propagation was best towards Argentina with the most interesting unidentified stations heard on 1500, 1620.04 and 1640.02 kHz. The only North American station noted was WWZN on 1510 kHz with a very weak signal.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
classification was DSO
at midnight, area 0030
classification was AXX
at midnight, area 0000
classification was FAI
at midnight, area 0370
|Total spot count:||63||45|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2003.12||114.9||46.5||(54.4 predicted, -2.3)|
|2004.01||114.1||37.2||(50.5 predicted, -3.9)|
|2004.02||107.0||46.0||(46.2 predicted, -4.3)|
|2004.03||112.0||48.9||(43.5 predicted, -2.7)|
|2004.04||101.2||39.3||(41.4 predicted, -2.1)|
|2004.05||99.8||41.5||(38.2 predicted, -3.2)|
|2004.06||91.4 (1)||35.7 (2)||(35.3 predicted, -2.9)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.