Last major update issued on November 14, 2013 at 05:55 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was very quiet on November 13. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 349 and 450 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 171.0 (increasing 34.9 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 123.2. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.9). Three hour interval K indices: 01111010 (planetary), 01122211 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B9 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 12 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 308) and 12 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 203) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11890 [S11W71] decayed slowly and produced a
few C flares.
C5+ flare: C6.5 at 03:51 UTC.
Region 11893 [S13E03] developed slowly and could produce C and minor M
class flares.
Region 11895 [S20E35] has many spots, significant polarity intermixing
and currently no magnetic delta structures. Further M class flares are possible.
C5+ flares: M1.4 at 15:20, C5.9 at 20:42 UTC.
Region 11896 [N10E35] was quiet and stable.
Region 11898 [S27W11] was quiet and stable.
Region 11899 [N05E64] has a large main penumbra and only a few small
spots. Occasional M class flares are possible.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2816 [S19W40] was quiet and stable.
S2826 [S23W30] developed slowly and quietly.
S2828 [S15E50] was quiet and stable.
S2829 [S19W02] developed slowly and quietly.
New region S2830 [N18E20] emerged with penumbra spots in an old plage
area.
New region S2831 [N18W21] emerged with a penumbra spot.
November 11-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A coronal hole (CH594) in the northern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on November 12-13.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on November 14. A high speed stream from CH594 could reach Earth on November 15 and cause unsettled and active intervals.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11890 | 2013.11.01 2013.11.02 |
13 | 17 | 6 | S11W69 | 0290 | EKC | CAO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S11W71 |
| S2803 | 2013.11.03 | N07W66 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| 11892 | 2013.11.06 | S05W34 | plage | ||||||||
| 11893 | 2013.11.07 2013.11.08 |
6 | 27 | 13 | S12E03 | 0140 | DSO | DHC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0360 |
| S2816 | 2013.11.07 | 2 | 1 | S19W40 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 11898 | 2013.11.08 2013.11.11 |
3 | 8 | 5 | S26W14 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
area: 0030 location: S27W11 |
| S2820 | 2013.11.08 | N21W46 | plage | ||||||||
| S2821 | 2013.11.08 | N10W48 | plage | ||||||||
| 11895 | 2013.11.09 2013.11.10 |
3 | 98 | 38 | S15E24 | 0120 | HSX | FSC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0700 location: S20E35 includes AR 11897 |
| S2823 | 2013.11.09 | N07W54 | plage | ||||||||
| 11896 | 2013.11.10 | 1 | 3 | 2 | N12E34 | 0140 | HAX | CKO |
 |
 |
location: N10E35 area: 0320 |
| S2826 | 2013.11.10 | 6 | 3 | S24W30 | 0022 | CRO |
 |
 |
|||
| 11897 | 2013.11.11 | 29 | S21E37 | 0610 | EKC | magnetically part of 11895 | |||||
| 11899 | 2013.11.12 | 3 | 9 | 6 | N06E62 | 0360 | HKX | CKO |
 |
 |
area: 0850 |
| S2828 | 2013.11.12 | 1 | 1 | S15E50 | 0010 | HRX |
 |
 |
|||
| S2829 | 2013.11.12 | 10 | 6 | S19W02 | 0050 | DRO |
 |
 |
|||
| S2830 | 2013.11.13 | 6 | 1 | N18E20 | 0016 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S2831 | 2013.11.13 | 1 | 1 | N18W21 | 0006 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 58 | 188 | 83 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 128 | 308 | 203 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 103 | 240 | 125 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 77 | 108 | 112 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011.11 | 153.5 (cycle peak) | 96.7 (cycle peak) | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) likely cycle 24 max |
8.81 |
| 2012.07 | 133.9 | 66.5 | 57.8 (-1.1) | 13.90 |
| 2012.08 | 115.4 | 63.0 | 58.2 (+0.4) | 7.96 |
| 2012.09 | 122.9 | 61.4 | 58.1 (-0.1) | 8.07 |
| 2012.10 | 123.3 | 53.3 | 58.6 (+0.5) | 9.97 |
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 61.8 | 59.7 (+1.1) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 40.8 | 59.6 (-0.1) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 62.9 | 58.7 (-0.9) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.3 | 38.0 | 58.4 (-0.3) | 6.11 |
| 2013.03 | 111.3 | 57.9 | 57.5 (-0.9) | 10.56 |
| 2013.04 | 124.8 | 72.4 | 57.9 (+0.4) | 5.40 |
| 2013.05 | 131.4 | 78.7 | (59.3 projected, +1.4) | 9.73 |
| 2013.06 | 110.1 | 52.5 | (59.7 projected, +0.4) | 12.60 |
| 2013.07 | 115.5 | 57.0 | (60.0 projected, +0.3) | 9.47 |
| 2013.08 | 114.6 | 66.0 | (60.3 projected, +0.3) | 8.27 |
| 2013.09 | 102.6 | 36.9 | (60.2 projected, -0.1) | 5.23 |
| 2013.10 | 132.1 | 85.6 | (58.7 projected, -1.5) | 7.71 |
| 2013.11 | 152.2 (1) | 55.9 (2A) / 128.9 (2B) / 88.0 (2C) | (56.6 projected, -2.1) | (6.8) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
