Last major update issued on July 12, 2005 at 05:50 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update July 2, 2005)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update July 2, 2005)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update July 2, 2005)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update February 1, 2005)]
[Archived reports (last update July 2, 2005)]
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm on July 11. Solar wind speed ranged between 356 and 513 (all day average 453) km/sec. The solar wind is still under the influence of CME effects and the interplanetary magnetic field was moderately southwards for a large part of the day. Major to severe geomagnetic storming has been observed early on July 12.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 93.3. The planetary
index was 23 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap
Three hour interval K indices: 43534343 (planetary), 43534343 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level.
At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 4 C class events was recorded during the day.
Region 10786 decayed in the north and south while moderately quick development was observed in the central section. In
that part a moderately strong magnetic delta structure has formed. A minor M class flare is
possible. Flares: C2.4 at 06:16, C8.4 at 15:08, C3.3 at 17:28 and C1.4 at 22:55 UTC.
Region 10788 was quiet and stable.
Region 10789 decayed slowly and quietly.
July 10-11: No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed during the day..
July 9: The M2 event in region 10786 produced a full halo CME. This CME was first observed in LASCO C3 images at 23:18 UTC.
history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on July 11. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to major storm on July 12 and quiet to minor storm on July 13. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on July 14-16.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is unusable. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay and Rafaela Argentina. Only a few stations from Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay were audible on other frequencies.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10788||2005.07.02||3||1||S07W50||0070||HAX||classification was HSX at midnight|
|10789||2005.07.03||11||4||N16W12||0070||EAO||classification was DSO at midnight|
|Total spot count:||38||32|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2005.01||102.2||31.3||(34.6 predicted, -0.6)|
|2005.02||97.2||29.1||(33.3 predicted, -1.3)|
|2005.03||89.9||24.8||(31.6 predicted, -1.7)|
|2005.04||86.0||24.4||(29.7 predicted, -1.9)|
|2005.05||99.3||42.6||(27.2 predicted, -2.5)|
|2005.06||93.7||39.3||(25.7 predicted, -1.5)|
|2005.07||116.2 (1)||48.9 (2)||(24.7 predicted, -1.0)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.